'Watch your back': Atlantic Shores offshore wind permit axe shows Trump intends to 'halt projects'
Move by EPA to void a key federal approval could set dangerous precedent for nation's fleet of 19GW of approved capacity
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s decision to reopen its final clean air permit for the Atlantic Shores wind project offshore New Jersey could be the first volley in Trump’s war on permitted arrays, according to sector analysts.
It's the first time a federal agency has scuttled an offshore wind project permit and “demonstrates that the Trump administration intends to halt at least some projects,” said Timothy Fox, managing director at consultancy ClearView Energy Partners.
“The question is, which ones are most at risk?” he added.
Previously, the US industry had thought that the 19GW of capacity spread across 11 projects approved under Biden would be safe from executive interference, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum recently said permitted arrays “will receive different treatment than those that are proposed”.
“That is clearly no longer the case,” said Philip Totaro, CEO of renewables analytic firm IntelStor. “Now everybody needs to watch their back.”
Atlantic Shores struggle
Shell retains its half stake in the Atlantic Shores joint venture with three leases off the Garden State, including one in the New York Bight.
Offshore wind development occurs overwhelmingly in US waters more than 3 nautical miles (5.5 km) off state coastlines, and the EPA clean air permit is just one of ten federal approvals projects must obtain, from at least five regulators.
Along with the EPA, BOEM steers the permitting regime in consultancy with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Fisheries Service, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the Fish and Wildlife Service.
'Dangerous precedent'
The EPA motion “definitely sets a very unfortunate precedent that could be used to ‘dis-permit’ other US projects in the future,” said Laura Fecova, US lead for offshore wind intelligence firm Aegir Insights.
John Murray, senior wind research analyst for S&P Global Commodity Insights, said “it's still early days to determine whether this marks the beginning of a broader ‘dis-permitting’ trend for approved offshore wind projects.”
Murray said S&P is still observing what the project review process entails and the EPA's move to pull its permit “is an isolated case or a signal of broader delays”.
Longer term, Trump’s actions against the industry could cause developers to “be wary of investing in a capital-intensive sector with long lead times that faces such demonstrable high election risk,” said ClearView's Fox.
The administration's moves “could significantly stymie market confidence in offshore wind permitting, notwithstanding the continued strong and stable state policies that support development,” added Fox.
Aegir’s Fecova said: “The instability of [the] US as a market could discourage future build-out, especially for projects where developers can still walk-away with relatively low financial losses.”
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