US offshore wind stares down Trump's double-barreled assault as projects dwindle
Atlantic Shores and SouthCoast look like the latest casualties of the President's hostility but several more are also vulnerable
With Atlantic Shores pulling the plug and SouthCoast teetering, Donald Trump’s war against offshore wind continues to claim victims, begging the question: who’s next?
Costs remain high and litigation rampant as the President deploys the vast apparatus of the US government to follow through on his promise to kill the industry.
Trump’s anti-wind executive order not only froze federal leasing and permitting, effectively stalling all projects entering the regulatory regime since 2022, but also put awarded arrays under open-ended executive review with the stated goal of “terminating or modifying” them.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum had stopped the project on unsubstantiated charges of insufficient environmental review, then allowed it to resume construction after Trump met with New York governor Kathy Hochul. This ignited speculation that Hochul’s flexibility on a stalled natural gas pipeline vetoed by her predecessor was the critical factor.
That rapprochement was short-lived, however. Trump’s onslaught against both the offshore and onshore sectors continues, with the President most recently stating: “We're not going to let windmills destroy our country any more than it's already been destroyed.”
Below are offshore wind projects that are most vulnerable, and several others that might make it across the finish line to supply gigascale clean energy sorely needed by the region.
New England Wind
With Ocean Winds’ SouthCoast Wind on the ropes, its neighbour in the Massachusetts wind energy area, Iberdrola’s New England Wind, also looks vulnerable.
Iberdrola’s US subsidiary Avangrid has been at the fore of offshore wind, developing flagship array Vineyard Wind 1 with partner Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) but has struggled to gain tractions with its solo arrays.
New England Wind is a revamp of two projects – Park City to Connecticut and Commonwealth to Massachusetts – that both collapsed in 2023 on rocketing inflation and interest rates.
Trump-mandated reviews are also a wild card facing New England Wind and all awarded arrays, with projects still in the dark as to when and how such inspections will be done.
Sunrise Wind
Orsted’s Sunrise Wind is likewise a survivor, but so far has avoided much of the political and litigious rage impacting its Northeast peers.
The 920MW array's first iteration also succumbed to inflation and high interest rates in 2023 but was re-awarded in New York’s Round 4 at substantially higher price of around $146/MWh.
The new contract enabled Orsted to take full control following the exit of erstwhile partner Eversource. The Danish firm took final investment on Sunrise last March after federal regulators greenlighted its environmental review and construction plan.
More than 80% of the total mass of an offshore wind turbine is steel, and as the US has virtually no capacity to produce sector-grade metal, all projects in construction will be affected.
Projects including “Orsted's Sunrise Wind, which have only just started construction, will be hit hard by this increase, adding millions in costs,” said Harrison Sholler, BloombergNEF offshore wind analyst.
US Wind
Its 270MW MarWin and 866MW Momentum Wind have been merged and joined by a third phase, bringing the total to 1.5GW, with Maryland state regulators also raising the value of its offtake contract per MWh.
It faces opposition in neighbouring Delaware where it would make landfall, and the legislature’s attempt to override local control has only stirred further controversy.
US Wind’s federal approvals are also the target of litigation spearheaded by tourist centre Ocean City, Maryland.
While ClearView saw the motion as based on procedural rather than substantive grounds, it still represents “an important indication that the Trump Administration is likely willing to defend at least some offshore wind projects,” it said in a note.
Empire Wind
Equinor’s 810MW Empire Wind survived its brush with death-by-Trump, but that doesn’t mean it is immune from further disruption.
The project comes in at least $5bn, a large premium over global prices, and with port and supply chain investments, totals at $7bn. [WASN'T THERE A WRITE-OFF HERE AS WELL?]
It will also be impacted by Trump’s steel tariffs that will raise price tags for its 55 Vestas 15MW turbines.
Rest of sector
Avangrid-CIP's 800MW Vineyard Wind 1, Orsted's 704MW Revolution, and Dominion Energy's 2.6GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind are far along in construction and are widely expected by industry analysts to continue, although all three face litigation that could put a stop to them after all.
Many other projects have been either cancelled, mothballed, or slow-rolled for the duration of the Trump's term in the hopes that the next presidential election will bring around a friendlier administration.
These include all of the projects in the New York Bight and others.