'Relief for wind industry' as Le Pen held at bay in French election shock

Although the exact route to form a new government in France was unclear, the wind industry was relieved that the worst-case scenario of a far-right victory had been avoided in the runoff of parliamentary elections.

In a surprise outcome, the New Popular Front alliance of far-left to green parties was the big winner of the second round Sunday, gaining some 177 to 192 out of 577 seats in the country’s National Assembly according to preliminary results, followed by the Liberal group Ensemble (Together) of President Emmanuel Macron with a projected 152 to 158 seats.

Marine Le Pen’s wind-hating National Rally (RN) and partners only came third place, securing a less-than-expected 138 to 145 about seats, which even with possible support by the conservative Republicans (about 65 seats) was far away from an absolute majority of 289 seats in the new parliament.

The victory of the left and centre in the runoff was made possible by tactical voting after more than 200 candidates, mostly from the New Popular Front and from Ensemble withdrew their candidacy to recommend whoever was the candidate not coming from the far right.

It isn’t clear, however, how the next government will be formed as the concept of coalition governments that is usual in other European countries is uncommon in France.

A possible coalition between the New Popular Front and Macron’s party would have enough seats in parliament for a stable majority in the National Assembly. But the radical left part of the front led by La France Insoumise (‘France Unbowed’) and its divisive leader Jean-Luc Melenchon before the elections had clearly stated that it wanted to reverse Macron’s liberal social policies and stop supporting Ukraine, making a link-up with the President nearly impossible. Melenchon after results of the runoff came in also said he refused to enter into negotiations with Macron’s party.

There are also ideas being floated that Macron could set up a technocrat government, which would need to secure varying majorities in parliament.

Or the more moderate part of the New Popular Front – the Greens and Socialists – could form a government with Macron’s party and some smaller centrist forces.

"Social justice has won, environmental justice has won, and the people have won. We are going to govern," Green Party (Les Ecologistes) national secretary Marine Tondelier was quoted as saying in French media, but she added on X: “I won’t lie to you and tell it will be simple, easy or comfortable.”

Whether governing meant together with Melenchon, or in a possible coalition with other leftist parties and Macron’s Ensemble, was unclear.

“A left-centre coalition would be great for renewables. Their programmes were positive (and really positive for the left-wing) to support their development,” Monnier said.

The New Popular Front in a hastily drafted election manifesto before the second round had proposed an energy and climate law and said it wants to make France a leader in marine renewables, including offshore wind, although no precise figures or targets were given.

One thing is certain after the inconclusive result of the runoff election, there will be a great amount of horse-trading between political parties and Macron to form the next government.

“We’ll know more in the next days or weeks,” Monnier said.