Next two years 'critical' as Europe eyes up to 70GW in offshore wind auctions: Aegir
'Unprecedented' tendering volume by 2029 to change market dynamics in favour of developers as governments must meet targets, consultancy says
The next two years will be ‘critical’ for Europe’s ambitions to have 300GW of sea-based wind capacity operating by mid-century, consultancy Aegir Insights said, pointing to data showing a combined up to 70.6GW in announced lease auctions for offshore wind in 2024 and 2025 alone.
“The peril for many European nations is that without successful completion of the planned auctions in the next couple of years, they will be at risk of not meeting their 2030 offshore wind goals,” Aegir’s Victoria Maguire Toft said.
“And it will be especially interesting to keep an eye on upcoming auctions in Germany and Denmark, both recently have moved away from old auction models to launch leasings without subsidies.”
Auctions currently planned across 14 European markets could lead to the award of leases totalling up to 88GW by 2029, the majority of which – 74GW – will suit conventional fixed-bottom projects, while the remaining 14GW will call for floating technology, the consultancy’s updated auction database showed.
Next year is slated to be a record year in terms of offshore wind tenders, with between 28.5 and 41.3GW of bottom-fixed acreage expected to be awarded, plus another 7.5GW of floating. That would be followed by another 16.2-22GW in 2025 in bottom-fixed and 0.8GW in floating.
"Auctions that only grant support are not included," she said.
Several auctions have also announced capacities as ranges and in some auctions developers will be allowed to overplant the awarded areas, she added.
The unprecedented large pipeline of auctions coming through to 2030 “could transform the dynamics of the sector by creating conditions in which governments need to attract developers more than developers need to win over governments,” Maguire Toft wrote.
As site attractiveness, regulatory frameworks, and support options vary across the markets, the next two years could be key to determining where developers choose to focus their resources and capital, Aegir added.
As developers are struggling to secure viable business cases due to cost increases and squeezed supply chains, auctions including subsidies – in markets such as Ireland and France – could have a competitive advantage over pure lease auctions.