'More non-turbine challenges' | GE Vernova hits back in New York round 3 offshore wind demise
American OEM told Recharge that state’s blockbuster 4GW procurement faced multiple hurdles beyond turbine size
US turbine maker GE Vernova, which was at the centre of controversy over New York’s scrapped blockbuster 4GW round 3, said that the solicitation was doomed for a range of issues beyond turbine size.
Winners announced last October included TotalEnergies, Rise Light & Power and Corio’s 1.4GW Attentive Energy One, RWE-National Grid’s 1.3GW Community Offshore, and CIP’s US subsidiary Vineyard Offshore’s 1.3GW Excelsior Wind.
GE's 18MW platform and its proposal to build supporting nacelle and blade manufacturing plants through its subsidiary LM Wind formed the basis of each developers’ bid.
The move to smaller turbines would force the developers to redesign their projects and raise Capex due to the need for eight to 12 more machines per array, along with associated cabling and other ancillary construction costs and higher operations and maintenance (O&M).
GE Vernova contested Nyserda's assertion that the round was cancelled primarily on turbine issues, though.
Sector challenges
New York round 3 projects were submitted towards the end of 2022 and early 2023 and were awarded in October, with the market seeing several key changes that may have raised viability risk.
Nyserda re-opened round 3 bids to allow developers to adjust their proposals to account for this guidance, though.
Larger turbines would also raise issues as fewer installation vessels are available that can handle the higher weights.
“You start doing an 18MW turbine, what's the crane capacity, who's got those vessels? What's the cost?” the GE representative asked.
Grid access and transmission capacity remain key bottlenecks and it's unclear whether the New York independent systems operator (NY-ISO) would be able to integrate so much power by expected start of commercial operations in 2032.
Moreover, the scale of the round would have seen three major projects jockeying for supply chain and port infrastructure to simultaneously install some 222 turbines to beat the commissioning deadline.
Yet, constraints on grid and port capacity would “have been well known to the developers when they were submitting their bids,” said BloombergNEF senior analyst Atin Jain.
“These issues have rendered the projects unable to proceed under the awarded terms,” Nyserda confirmed.
Nameplate race
Controversy notwithstanding, GE said its smaller units were a better deal for developers due to higher capacity factors of 64%, compared to the larger units’ 59%, able to generate 5% more energy annually and offsetting its higher Capex.
Moreover, the smaller units would operate better during New York’s sweltering summers compared to the 18MW units, maintaining their rated capacity to 20°Celsius (68° F), compared to 10°C for the larger machine.
If you want “reliable projects that run for decades, is the nameplate race what you want to chase? Or do you want to chase reliability and efficiency?” GE asked.
Not everyone is convinced, however.
“Moving from an 18MW to a 15.5MW turbine would have a meaningful impact on project capital costs as well as the levelized cost of energy,” he added.
The round was considered the new standard for sector pricing, coming at $145/MWh in nominal dollars, or $96.72/MWh in 2023 (real) dollars, a 35% uplift on rounds 1 and 2.
Even this might not be enough for projects to go forward, GE warned.
“New York 3 just got caught up in a really tough chapter: Resetting industry with developers, resetting industry and technology, and resetting industry and policy,” the GE representative said.
“The best thing is maybe it doesn't go forward and we try again.”