Global wind power growth slower than expected but COP28 can 'unlock potential'
Scaling back 29GW of growth a blip rather than a reversal, says Wood Mackenzie
Energy consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie has lopped 29GW from its long term forecast for installed capacity in the global wind sector, due mainly to a combination of "growing pains in the US and an unexpected slowdown in project development in China.
The retreat was viewed as a mere bump on a fast road of growth, however, with factors in the world's two biggest economies accounting for 82% of the downgrade from forecasts issued just three months earlier.
'Growing pains'
The outlook said a number of cancelled power purchase agreements in the US had contributed to a 10.9GW downgrade in the global offshore outlook from 2023 to 2032.
The report mentioned the announcement by Danish offshore wind developer Orsted to cease development of its Ocean Winds 1&2 projects. In addition, it said, "supply chain bottlenecks and permitting delays will push nearly 8GW of offshore wind projects in the US beyond the 2032 outlook".
"This means that cumulative offshore capacity in the US by 2030 will reach roughly half the government’s 30GW target as a result," Wood Mackenzie stated.
The report described the US sector's travails as "growing pains" but added that continued economic and policy uncertainty there has caused onshore and repowering development timelines to shift, "prolonging a 2023 slowdown through 2024".
In China, a tightening of permitting requirements and cancellation of some low grade projects explained a 12GW cut to the updated forecast, but the tone remained upbeat.
“Long-term market fundamentals remain strong globally despite near-term challenges in project execution in China and offshore market maturation in the US,” commented Luke Lewandowski, vice president, global renewables research at Wood Mackenzie.
The report suggested that the COP28 summit currently taking place in Dubai could accelerate wind projects in the United Arab Emirates and in other newer markets for wind power.
“There is some serious growth potential in the Middle East and other emerging nations across Asia and Africa and hopefully COP28 will help unlock some of that potential,” Lewandowski said
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