'Floating crucial' to tapping up to 55GW of Turkish offshore wind: World Bank

Turkey has a total locational potential for 55GW of offshore wind, mostly floating, according to the World Bank as it gave a glimpse of an upcoming offshore wind roadmap for the country, but a government representative was unable to give real insights into Ankara’s plans for wind at sea.

While the World Bank had earlier said Turkey has a technical potential for 75GW of offshore wind, the 200-page-report to be launched at year-end focused more closely on the most realistic potential alongside Turkey’s western coast in the Aegean and Marmara Seas, resulting in the lower figure.

Under a high growth scenario, the roadmap estimates Turkey could install a first 2GW of offshore wind by 2030, Yasemin Orucu, senior energy specialist at the World Bank, said during the webinar earlier this month organised by advocacy body WindEurope.

Only about 15% of the country’s potential lies in bottom-fixed technology, while the rest would be floating offshore wind, Orocu revealed.

“Floating would be very crucial in Turkey achieving its offshore wind potential in the future,” she said.

The bank for its roadmap is actively working on three possible sites for offshore wind in Turkey, one in the Marmara Sea outside the biggest city, Istanbul, and plans to carry out metocean and seabed surveys.

With the right backing by the government in Ankara, first expressions of interest could happen next year, pre-qualifications for a tender in 2024, and sufficient data would be available for an auction in 2025, Oruco estimated.

The World Bank specialist also pointed to some of the challenges offshore wind is facing in Turkey, among them wind speeds that are “slightly at the lower end” in international comparison, “reaching a mix of some 9.5 metres per second in some areas, but averaging 7.5 m/s generally.”

Turkey’s potential has also been reduced because of restricted areas to preserve bio-diversity. And the country would need to upgrade its power grid and port infrastructure for offshore wind to take off.

Ankara: 'when the time is right'

As Orocu gave first insights into the upcoming offshore wind roadmap, a government representative seemed unable to provide any certainty about Ankara’s strategy for offshore wind.

Asked about the World Bank’s high growth scenario that foresees 2GW of offshore wind in Turkey ab 2030, Özgür Sarhan, department head of energy supply security, markets and statistics at the ministry of energy and natural resources, said he didn’t know when Turkey will actually start building offshore arrays.

“When the time is right, we will join the offshore energy industry,” Sarhan said, adding that a tender may be possible in 2025 at the earliest “after completing some detailed analysis.”

Unimpressed by Ankara’s hesitation, Murat Durak, the chairman of the Turkish offshore wind association, said the country should set clear targets and show political commitment for offshore wind. Turkey needs to target to install 5GW of offshore wind by 2030, and 10GW by 2040, he told the webinar.

“[Such a] target would direct investor eyes to my country. We need a dedicated offshore wind energy act,” Durak said, adding that Turkey had the potential to build up an offshore wind supply chain that could also cater for countries surrounding the Black Sea as well as Arab countries.

“Turkey can be the manufacturing hub,” he said, noting his organisation together with similar industry bodies in Ukraine, Bulgaria, Georgia and Romania, had recently set up a Black Sea Offshore Wind Federation.