California pulls key floating wind action plan at last minute to weigh up '50GW by 2045'
California Energy Commission delays submitting key sector scoping document after new studies claim US' largest state could more than double its long-term offshore targets
The California Energy Commission (CEC) has delayed handing in a lead-off strategic plan for offshore wind energy development in its coastal waters to afford itself more time to factor in feedback that points to the potential to more than double long-term goals for clean power projects off its coastline.
The last-minute decision – expectations were that the CEC would submit the first of three scoping documents yesterday (1 June) to state natural resources agency the CNRA – was prompted by new information from recent sector workshops and two new studies that concluded some 50GW of floating wind arrays could be turning off California by 2045, rather than the 20GW currently envisioned.
“These preliminary megawatt planning goals are established at levels that can contribute significantly to achieving California’s climate goals,” the CEC stated.
A study submitted to the CEC by a team of energy system scientists at the University of California (UC) at Berkeley, however, suggested that the CEC “consider a significantly higher preliminary planning goal of offshore wind (OSW) deployment (50 GW by 2045)”.
“Current OSW planning goals for 2045 are unlikely to add much to resource diversity and understate OSW’s potential to meet California’s electrification load growth,” the study states, adding that “maximum feasible capacity of OSW is likely to be an order of magnitude higher than the technical reference point considered by CEC”.
Another report issued renewable energy think tank GridLab raised the CEC’s 2030 target from 3GW to 4GW.
The CEC will issue a follow-on study on sector infrastructure and workforce development investments, and will also provide a permitting roadmap for the industry. All reports are due by the end of this year in anticipation of a finalised plan by 31 June 2023.
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the federal agency charged with regulating energy development on the outer continental shelf (OCS), announced 6 May that it had completed its environmental assessment of the Humboldt WEA and found “no significant impacts”, clearing the way for lease sales.
As the OCS drops off steeply along the US’ west coast, all of California’s offshore wind energy will be floating in waters over 1000 metres deep, a still nascent technology.
Varner Seaman, California representative for industry advocacy group American Clean Power Association, said: “California [is] on the path to becoming a global leader in floating offshore wind—with all of the environmental, economic, and energy benefits that go with it.
“The CEC’s draft goals align closely with the targets outlined last year in AB 525. They are ambitious, achievable targets that show the state is serious about going big on offshore wind.”
Beyond Humboldt and Morro Bay, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has identified another three areas with large potential, including Diablo Canyon off the central coast and Cape Mendocino and Del Norte off its northern coasts, with a total of more than 21GW of potential capacity based on NREL’s conservative 3MW per km2.
NREL estimates California’s technical offshore wind potential at 200GW, and forecasts that developing 10GW of offshore wind in California would support thousands of jobs while supplying 15% of the state’s current electricity needs and $20bn in economic growth by 2050.
State targeting 100% renewable energy
California has already made substantial progress on renewable energy development, and on at least three separate occasions in recent weeks, the California independent systems operator (Caiso), the non-profit that oversees the state’s bulk electric power system, reported that renewables had powered virtually all the state’s power needs, the latest on 8 May.
Solar provides the bulk of California's renewable power off its nation-leading 18GW of utility-scale solar capacity plus another 8-9GW of behind-the-meter residential solar, supplying as much as two-thirds of the state's power needs on sunny afternoons.
But this much solar poses grid balancing challenges to Caiso, as demand tends to increase in the early evening just as solar is waning, forcing Caiso to keep a substantial amount of natural gas fired power operating to quickly step in as replacement.
Senate Bill 100 (100 Percent Clean Energy Act of 2018) mandates that renewable energy and zero-carbon resources supply 60% of all retail electricity sold and state agency electricity needs by 2030, and 100% by 2045. California has the second largest state power market after Texas, but studies indicate that meeting its renewable and greenhouse gas emissions targets will require tripling its current power production.
Big industrial hurdles to overcome
A draft report issued by the CEC and Caiso forecasts that meeting state renewable energy targets would require 53.2GW of utility solar; 37GW of battery storage and 12GW of wind from other states as distant as Wyoming, along with 10GW of floating wind from projects along California’s central and northern coasts, 4GW of long-duration energy storage, 2.3GW of geothermal and 2.2GW of in-state onshore wind.