Burning out| US on track to close half its coal generation capacity by 2026: report
New data from research group IEEFA suggests coal fleet capacity will tumble to 159GW in 2026, half its peak 15 years ago, and to 116GW five years later.
The US is on track to close half its coal generation capacity by 2026, just 15 years after it reached a peak of 318GW, with utilities holding firm on plant retirement timelines despite pandemic-induced construction delays for cleaner energy resources, according to Institute for Energy Economics and Finance Analysis (IEEFA).
Based on current announcements from utilities, coal capacity will fall to 159GW in 2026 and a further 43GW to 116GW by 2030. By then, fewer than 200 large-scale coal-fired units (50MW or more) would remain without announced retirement dates, and 118 of those would be at least 40 years old.
President Joe Biden's administration is hoping that will prove accurate as part of its efforts to accelerate the country's transition to clean energy sources and meet its Paris Agreement 2030 target to cut greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% from 2005 levels.
Overall, the plant closures are widespread. The 173 coal-fired units set to close between now and 2030 are located in 33 states. In most years, the average in-service date of most retiring units occurred in the 1970s, meaning they will be more than 50 years old when shut down.
Coal use by US power producers is again on the decline this year after a short-lived recovery amid Covid-19 impacts to the energy sector and broader US economy. Consumption may fall to 400 million tons - less than half of what was used a decade ago.
Actual US electricity generation from coal is now less than half the 44% peak in 2011, dipping to 20% last year. The US Department of Energy expects coal’s market share to fall to 17% this year.
By 2030, “there is a strong possibility that coal’s power market share will fall to 10% or lower,” said IEEFA, an energy research group based in Ohio that claims to be non-partisan.
These milestones for coal portend an ongoing and deep US industry restructuring as demand for the fuel continues to drop quickly, according to the report.
“It is likely to result in significant mine closures, layoffs, and falling tax and royalty payments in coal-producing states,” said the report.
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