Biden's legacy | America's first wave of offshore wind projects now facing Trump
Scorecard of the 11 projects totalling nearly 19GW approved under the former president that now faces a hostile administration bent on derailing it
What a difference a presidency can make.
At that time the nation had a grand total of 42MW of operational offshore wind capacity and only two large-scale projects nearing the end of their permitting regimes.
Flash forward four years, and the sector finds itself in a very different place.
Eleven projects holding some 19GW of capacity have been approved by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). One commercial scale project, Orsted’s South Fork, is already operational while three more are under construction, with another two soon to follow.
Yet amid these successes, the industry faced massive and often terminal struggles with surging inflation and interest rates. Costs rose by as much as 50%. Some projects fell apart, unable to get financing under low-priced offtake, while others regrouped and/or rebranded, with new contracts at higher rates.
Below is a scorecard, projects that are on track despite the challenges (and some that fell by the wayside).
South Fork
South Fork is New York’s only project not contracted through New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (Nyserda) but instead signed offtake with state utility Long Island Power Authority in 2017.
Complete with rate escalators that bring it a levelised nominal price of $160/MWh over its 20-year duration, South Fork is among the few US arrays to not seek price adjustments.
The array is currently sending power from its 12 Siemens Gamesa 11MW turbines to the Long Island, New York grid.
Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind
If the US offshore wind sector has a hero, it must be Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW).
The mammoth 2.6GW array is by far the largest to gain federal greenlight, and is also the only array to remain on time and almost on-budget, with 78 monopiles and several transition pieces and subsea cables already in place.
It's also the only project developed by a regulated utility with no prior experience in offshore wind beyond its 12MW CVOW-pilot.
In contrast to Northeast deregulated markets, Dominion is developing CVOW as a conventional power plant, complete with guaranteed state-managed cost recovery. This certainty enabled the developer to sign major supplier contracts in 2021 that locked in prices before inflation began to bite.
Dominion anticipates all 176 Siemens Gamesa 14MW turbines will be installed by 2027 when the project will be commissioned, helping the utility to meet surging demand for power.
Vineyard Wind
Vineyard nearly made the permitting finish line before Trump in one of the final acts in his first term sent it back for additional review.
Construction momentum was derailed by a shattered blade in July last year that littered the beaches of ultrarich playgrounds of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket in Massachusetts with debris and became a rallying cry for sector opponents.
Regulators shut the project down while the developer and its OEM, GE Vernova, conducted a root-cause analysis that ultimately revealed manufacturing problems.
Turbine installation resumed late last year, and GE expects to install all 64 units by the end of 2025
Revolution Wind
The 704MW project, also part of Orsted’s JV with GIP, is unique in having contracted off-take (20 years) with two states. Rhode Island is taking 400MW of capacity and Connecticut 304MW, both at low rates of around $99/MWh, according to ACP.
BOEM approved its construction and operations plan (COP) in November, 2023, and it began offshore installation last year.
Marshalled out of State Pier in New London, Connecticut, and deploying several other ports in Rhode Island, Danish offshore contractor Cadeler has already installed at least seven of the array’s eventual 65 11MW Siemens Gamesa turbines.
Sunrise Wind
The new contract enabled Orsted to take full control following the exit of Eversource from the industry.
The Danish developer took final investment on the project last March after BOEM issued a Record of Decision (ROD) greenlighting its environmental review, followed by COP approval in June.
Onshore construction has already started but the project won’t head offshore until next year when it will begin installing its 84 Siemens Gamesa 11MW turbines on acreage adjacent to Revolution and South Fork in the Massachusetts-Rhode Island WEA.
Empire Wind I
Empire was awarded in New York’s first round alongside Sunrise, and like that project saw its offtake sink amid surging inflation and interest rates. It too was re-awarded in Round 4 at $155/MWh.
Along the way, Empire saw its sister project, the 1.2GW Empire Wind 2 scrapped due to cost concerns amid Equinor's split with partner, oil supermajor BP, in January last year.
The project underpins Equinor’s $865m investment in SBMT as well as Danish shipper Maersk’s new-build wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV) under construction at Seatrium’s Singapore yard.
Offshore construction of Empire is expected to begin in 2026.
MarWin/Momentum Wind
Its 270MW MarWin and 866MW Momentum Wind have been rearranged and joined by a third phase, bringing the total to 1.5GW.
Maryland state regulators also raised the value of offshore wind renewable energy credits (OREC) earned by the project. One OREC is equivalent to the environmental attributes of 1MWh of offshore wind power.
This outcome reflects varying project fortunes in the chaos of the US industry.
As Orsted faltered and eventually sidelined its nearly 1GW Skipjack arrays, Maryland regulators in need of vast amounts of renewable power to satisfy energy and emissions mandates granted US Wind the abandoned ORECs.
New England Wind
While Iberdrola-controlled Avangrid has been at the fore of the US offshore wind sector for years, including flagship array Vineyard Wind 1 with JV partner CIP, its independent projects have struggled to take flight.
Atlantic Shores
Partner, French utility EDF, likewise took nearly as big a hit of $941m but maintained the project is on track.
This is only the latest blow to the prospects for Atlantic Shores, which has found itself in the unenviable position of being the highest-profile target of Trump’s invective against offshore wind.
Atlantic Shores was awarded in 2021 at a low price of $58.8/MWh and is widely assumed to be seeking higher rates, although the developer has declined to confirm.
Despite pulling back from the project awarded by New Jersey, Shell is holding on to its share of Atlantic Shores’ vast acreage off New Jersey and $780m lease in the New York Bight.
BOEM approved 3GW of project capacity in the entirety of the Atlantic Shores South lease area, with enough area remaining to help meet New Jersey’s 11GW by 2040 goal.
Mayflower Wind/SouthCoast Wind
SouthCoast Wind dropped a bombshell last month when it conceded that despite being fully permitted, the array is likely to languish for the duration of Trump’s term.
EDP Renewables, which is advancing SouthCoast via its Ocean Winds joint venture with Engie, booked a “prudent” $138m impairment against its US offshore wind assets that assumes a four-year delay to a project that is “ready to go”, according to EDPR chief executive Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade.
SouthCoast, previously known as Mayflower Wind, was awarded its first 804MW in Massachusetts' Round 2 in 2020 at $77.76/MWh, while the remaining 405MW was procured in 2021 at $75/MWh.
Last year, Shell, which had partnered with Ocean Winds on the project, likewise exited as part of its overall shift to refocus on its oil & gas business.
The project was rebid into the New England tristate procurement where it gained 1GW from Massachusetts and 200MW from Rhode Island in last September’s award.
As with Avangrid’s New England array, SouthCoast has yet to finalise contracts with utilities in either state.
New England Aqua Ventus I
The Maine Research Array (MeRA) is jointly owned by Mitsubishi's Diamond Offshore Wind (DOW) and the state, with the University of Maine as technical advisers.
The largely rural state derives significant economic benefit from its coastal resources, and while governor Janet Mills has leant her support for offshore wind, Maine has opted for a go-slow approach to development to ensure the industry doesn't conflict with important lobster and other fisheries.
BOEM approved the 10-turbine floating array last August, putting the state in pole position for floating wind development in the US.