GE Vernova dampens wind outlook as market stays 'too difficult to call'
US giant hardens guidance on full year loss and revenue declines but wind narrows deficit sharply in third quarter
GE Vernova now expects to lose about $400m in its wind business this year and said the direction of the crucial US onshore turbine market remains "too difficult to call".
The US power technology giant’s estimate for full-year losses in its wind segment marks a hardening of its previous guidance, which estimated a deficit in the $200m-$400m range. Wind lost $588m for GE Vernova in 2024.
The wind business today posted a third quarter loss of $61m (Ebitda), sharply improving a $317m deficit in the same period a year ago as onshore profitability improved and offshore wind contract losses fell. Wind's margins came in at a negative 2.3%, compared to negative 11% in Q3 2024.
The OEM cited more profitable onshore equipment and pricing, greater productivity at its factories that manufacture blades and nacelles, and $500m reduction in offshore wind contract losses.
Quarterly orders increased to $1.8bn from $1.7bn driven by higher onshore wind services business, which compensated for lower turbine orders.
GE Vernova had by 30 September booked wind turbine and repowering unit orders for 2.7GW this year, against 3.8GW at the same stage last year.
The company cited policy uncertainty among US onshore wind buyers and said it is continuing to execute its offshore wind strategy, focused on finishing the Dogger Bank and Vineyard projects.
CEO Scott Strazik told analysts that forecasting onshore equipment volume trajectory "remains too difficult to call."
Onshore was about 88% of the OEM's $6.7bn in wind revenue this year through 30 September, while equipment, mainly onshore and offshore represented, about 80%.
"In the US, onshore equipment orders remain soft. Customers still face permitting delays and tariff uncertainty that will likely weigh on our 2026 onshore revenue," he added.
Nine-month wind revenue inched ahead to $6.74bn from $6.59bn a year earlier, primarily due to delivery of more onshore turbines and higher transactional services in the US.
This was partially offset by delivery of fewer onshore units globally where GE Vernova has adopted a sales strategy targeting mainly Australia, Japan, and Europe, markets where it has a strong presence and can generate targeted margins.
"For the full year 2025, we now anticipate wind revenue to be down high single digits organically compared to our previous expectations of down mid-single digits due to the softness in onshore equipment orders continuing through the year," said CFO Ken Parks.
On 30 September, RPO, a measure of backlog, declined 14% to $21.5bn from a year ago, which the OEM attributed to a reduction in mainly US onshore wind orders, and decreases at offshore as it continues to execute two remaining contracts.
Wind remained the laggard at GE Vernova, which continued to roar ahead in its Power and Electrification segments.
Electrification orders doubled organically in the quarter, for example, as customers flocked to buy grid equipment.
GE Vernova's ambitions there were underlined yesterday when it said it will pay more than $5bn to take full ownership of Prolec GE, the grid equipment business it currently owns as a 50/50 joint venture with Xignux.
Strazik said: “We are leading from a position of strength and are focused on long-term growth and returns. This era of increased electricity investment has just started, and we have substantial opportunity ahead of us as we provide the solutions required to help the world electrify to thrive and decarbonise.”