Will the rise of Europe's far-right populists send renewables into reverse?

When French lawmakers approved a shock moratorium on new wind and solar projects last month, the swift removal of their amendment to an energy and climate bill did little to dispel unease in a European renewables sector that is increasingly a target of right-wing populists.

An alliance between Marine Le Pen’s National Rally movement and conservative Republicans ambushed President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist administration by staging a vote at a time when the lower house was sparsely attended.

Among these was the claim that France’s net zero plans will require a €300bn ($348bn) spending splurge on renewables, to be funded by higher electricity bills.

There was nothing unique about the French vote.

Across Europe, populists renowned for voicing – some would say exploiting – anti-immigration sentiments are attempting to mine a new seam of resentment about net zero policies.

The motives for a growing hostility to renewables can vary – the visual impacts of renewables and transmission infrastructure play a big part – but populists usually argue that net zero policies are imposed by a progressive metropolitan elite, and that hard-working people pay higher electricity bills or fork out for expensive heat pumps as a result.

Another strain of resentment often tapped for votes, is the idea that certain freedoms – think combustion engines and low emission zones – are being taken away.

In some countries, especially France, the pushback against renewables also connects with a nuclear power lobby opposed to the advance of renewables in the energy mix.

'Net stupid zero'

In the United Kingdom, the Reform UK populist party now places its "Net Stupid Zero" slogan second only to the anti-migrant "Stop the Boats" when it comes to campaigning.

Visiting Scotland's declining oil and gas heartlands ahead of a June by-election, Farage described the debate over net zero policies as the "next Brexit".

Openly inspired by Donald Trump's stance on energy, Reform UK's rhetoric seems to be veering towards outright climate scepticism.

The letter was criticised as an apparent threat to the sanctity of contract, prompting Tice to tell BBC radio that it was merely intended to alert companies that they will not be allowed to seek better terms for existing CfDs and was not, after all, meant to serve as a warning that they would rip up "legally binding" contracts.

This statement directly contradicted the wording of the letter, and Trice still promised that Reform UK will end renewables subsidies, which he blamed for "pushing up bills and sacrificing reliability to spurious decarbonisation targets... while ruining the economy and the countryside".

Debunking drive

Some of the negative claims about the cost of renewable energy seem easy to debunk.

In France, for example, much of the €300bn "renewables spending" relates to multi-year investment plans by transmission system operator RTE and distribution network operator Enedis.

RTE's plan shows that only €37bn of the €96bn of capex earmarked through 2040 is for connecting offshore wind farms, with another €19bn for higher voltage transmission lines, with much more devoted to improving the resilience of networks.

France’s energy regulatory commission forecasts that rising volumes of renewable electricity will result in declining costs over the next 25 years, and the government gave it a helping hand last month by adjusting terms with three early wind farms to reduce negative pricing costs under feed-in-tariffs.

“Our energy program is too serious a subject for moratoriums to be decided in an empty chamber, on the basis of objectively false arguments,” Anne Catherine De Tourtier, president of France Renouvelables, said after the first vote.

Yet some key members of Macron’s governing coalition were quick to lose their nerve.

Bruno Retailleau, Minister of the Interior, said he was opposed to any more subsidising renewables through Contracts for Difference (CfDs).

"Wind and photovoltaic power only contribute intermittently to the French energy mix, which is costly to manage," he wrote in Le Figaro, a traditionally conservative newspaper, prompting energy transition minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher to accuse him of resorting to "gross populism".

Renewables blame game

Another argument used by some populist parties centers on the idea that the intermittent nature of their power supply makes energy systems less stable or more unreliable.

The causes are still under investigation, but a government inquiry published in June suggested that significant power oscillations led to several gigawatts of solar power dropping off the system in an instant, triggering a rolling blackout.

Renewables were supplying about two-thirds of the Iberian grids when the blackouts occurred.

Opposition parties in Spain suggested that an increasing reliance on renewables and rejection of nuclear energy may have played a part.

Alberto Nunez Feijoo, leader of the centre-right People's Party (PP), told Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez "you were so intent on being the greenest in the world that you have led Spaniards into the dark".

Reactions were not limited to Spain, noted Rana Abid, general director of REN21, a Paris-based think tank.

One such voice was US energy secretary Chris Wright. “It's very sad to see what's happened to Portugal and Spain and so many people there. But you know, when you hitch your wagon to the weather, it's just a risky endeavor,” he ventured, barely a week after the blackout.

"We're observing an increase in disinformation campaigns generally, but we also see how far an event, in Spain for instance, is picked up as an argument against renewables even outside Europe," Abid said.

The June report appeared to show that grid operator Red Electrica was largely to blame – and not renewables per se – due to an apparent miscalculation of demand and a failure to activate 30GW of capacity available from combined cycle gas generators.

Sánchez stuck to his guns insisting that he would not deviate “a single millimetre” from his government’s commitment to net zero and a renewables buildout.

Yet attacks on the government intensified, with Lourdes Méndez, a congresswoman with the right-wing populist VOX party, accused the government of pursuing "suicidal" policies that had reduced gas-fired thermoelectric capacity and left renewables as what she described as “the only alternative, causing blackouts, soaring prices and industrial paralysis”.

Those outside the fray of Spanish politics point out that the Iberian blackout reveals more about the importance of these grid-balancing systems, than it does about any innate problem with renewables.

"I believe the blackout could have been arrested with appropriate planning. They could have solved this with additional thermal commitments, or they could have deployed batteries earlier on, but they didn’t."

"I think people need to take the politics out of it because let's not lie to ourselves renewables are intermittent."

Sound the retreat?

How far the populists are really connecting with public opinion is still an unfolding story, but some pressure to dial back on net zero policies is being felt in more traditional parties.

In the UK, the Conservatives, who put into law a commitment to reach net zero by 2050 when they were in power say they will now drop net zero targets.

The Labour government has tried to toughen its position on immigration, but not so on net zero.

Earlier this year, UK research institute Persuasion UK found immigration was the main reason Reform UK supporters gave for switching allegiance from Labour, but not net zero.

Affordability the new mantra in Germany too

Some commentators believe the strong uptake in renewables auctions since the election partly reflects a belief, among developers, that conditions will become less attractive under Merz.

Pressure for expensive grid expansions and upgrades, have made it hard for the new government to shield consumers from rising energy costs, and this remains a target for the AfD.

The previous government also struggled with policies intended to increase the use of heat pumps.

"There are various topics in the German energy transition that cause political disagreement, or even conflict, but the debate now starts and ends with the issues of affordability for private households and competitiveness for industry," said Casimir Lorenz, managing director for Central Europe at think-tank Aurora Energy Research.

The same issue will probably be the making or breaking of Miliband's mission to achieve a virtually clean UK grid by 2030.

Miliband sold his ambitious policies on a promise that that switching to 95% low-carbon sources by 2030 will slash the average electricity bill by £300 ($403) by the end of the decade.

The Spanish government, too, is trying to redouble its push toward net zero while responding to criticism – leaks to the Spanish press suggest it will back new investments in grid scale storage systems as well as upgrades in grid balancing infrastructure.

Populists in power

Populist rhetoric can be an excellent way of winning elections, or becoming a coalition power broker, but those that win office can bump into hard realities.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was branded a right-wing populist when she won office in 2023 but on energy her stance has been a largely pragmatic one, governed more by affordability than dogma, notes Aurora's Matteo Coriglioni.

Meloni may be keen on nuclear energy, and on building an Italian gas hub for the Mediterranean, but her administration has also seen the creation of a regulatory framework for a first offshore wind auction.

Earlier this month, a decree establishing state-owned port zones in Augusta and Taranto intended to turn both into hubs capable of hosting and supporting an offshore wind supply chain.

The planned infrastructure projects, include dredging, and dock upgrades, have already been given a €78.3m funding pathway.