Energy Transition

Renewables mean global emissions growth 'not as bad as first feared': IEA

Green power build-out in 2022 dampened worldwide impact of energy crisis-linked fossil use, with CO2 levels rising less than 1% – though still on an 'unsustainable growth trajectory', says the agency

. Fatih Birol.
. Fatih Birol.Foto: Christopher Hopson/Recharge
Rapidly growing renewable power plant construction through the global energy crisis has helped the world “limit the impacts” of the accompanying spike in CO2 from coal- and oil-fired generation, with worldwide emissions rising by less than 1% in 2022, according to new International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis.

Although far smaller than the “exceptional jump” of over 6% in 2021, energy-related emissions remain on an “unsustainable growth trajectory”, stated the agency, which is calling again for “stronger actions” to be taken by international governments and industries to accelerate the energy transition in meet the Paris Agreement climate goals.

“The impacts of the energy crisis didn’t result in the major increase in global emissions that was initially feared – and this is thanks to the outstanding growth of renewables, EVs, heat pumps and energy efficient technologies. Without clean energy, the growth in CO2 emissions would have been nearly three times as high,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol, launching the CO2 Emissions in 2022 report.

“However, we still see emissions growing from fossil fuels, hindering efforts to meet the world’s climate targets. International and national fossil fuel companies are making record revenues and need to take their share of responsibility, in line with their public pledges to meet climate goals. It’s critical that they review their strategies to make sure they’re aligned with meaningful emissions reductions.”

Worldwide, energy-related CO2 grew in 2022 by 0.9%, or 321 million tonnes, reaching a new high of more than 36.8 billion tonnes, according to the report. That the rise in emissions was “significantly slower” than global economic growth in the year, of 3.2%, the IEA suggested was “signalling a return to a decade-long trend that was interrupted in 2021 by the rapid and emissions-intensive economic rebound from the Covid crisis”.

The IEA report flagged the role extreme weather events and “an unusually large number” of nuclear power plants being offline had in driving up emissions, but also spotlighted that an additional 550 million tonnes of emissions were avoided in 2022 “by increased deployment of clean energy technologies”.

“While the increase in coal emissions was only around one-quarter of 2021’s rise, it still far exceeded the last decade’s average growth rate. The increase in emissions from coal more than offset the 1.6% decline in emissions from natural gas as supply continued to tighten following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as European businesses and citizens responded with efforts to cut their gas use,” said Birol.

Oil-fired CO2 emissions grew even more than those from coal, rising by 2.5%, though still remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The IEA noted that half of the year-on-year increase in oil’s emissions came from aviation as global air travel continued to recover from pandemic lows.
China’s emissions ran “broadly flat” through 2022, according to IEA figures, due to the impact of strict Covid-19 measures and declining construction activity, with the wider weakening of the economy leading to reductions in industrial and transport-linked CO2.

Outwith China, emissions from Asia’s emerging and developing economies increased by 4.2%, “reflecting rapid economic and energy demand growth”.

Emission levels in the EU fell by 2.5% in 2022, with record renewables deployment “helping ensure the use of coal was not as high as some observers had anticipated” following the Russian invasion of Ukraine that threw the regional energy transition into disarray, said the IEA.

In the US, emissions rose by 0.8%, a growth blamed on buildings increasing their energy consumption to cope with extreme temperatures.

The report is the first in a new IEA series, the Global Energy Transitions Stocktake, which will bring together the agency’s latest analysis in the lead-up to the COP28 climate conference in November.
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Published 2 March 2023, 06:04Updated 14 October 2023, 13:50
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