'Not enough to halt new projects' | Existing oil & gas fields must be plugged to hit Paris goal: report
Along with shelving new hydrocarbon production developments, operational oil and gas fields and coal mines must be rapidly wound-down to stop 'locked in' emissions from speeding global heating, says new Oil Change International-led study
The world must begin swiftly winding down operational fossil fuel extraction projects – as well as spiking planned new oil, gas and coal developments – if greenhouse gas emissions are to be kept in line with a less-than-2°C rise in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels, a landmark report has calculated.
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“Some existing fossil fuel licences and production will need to be revoked and phased out early. Governments need to start tackling head-on how to do this in a fair and equitable way, which will require overcoming opposition from fossil fuel interests.”
The OCI-IISD study, designed to expands on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recent finding that no new oil and gas fields or coal mines could be developed while keeping to a 1.5°C threshold, crunched numbers from a commercial database of over 25,000 oil and gas fields along along with a new dataset of mines in nine of the largest world’s coal-producing countries.
By ceasing award of new licences for fossil fuel exploration and production, governments “could both avoid further entrenching legal and political barriers to mitigation policies and minimise stranded assets”, said co-author Thijs Van de Graaf of Ghent University.
“Each new coal mine, gas well or oil field that is developed deepens political entanglement with the fossil fuel industry. Increasing the scale of extraction-related jobs and investments only makes it harder for governments to manage.”
Report co-author Dimitri Lafleur, from Global Climate Insights, added: “Our research should also be a warning sign for publicly listed companies and their investors that reserves that are on the books to be developed cannot be developed to stay below 1.5°C.
“Fossil fuel companies that claim to be aligned with the Paris Agreement and that need to transition their core businesses, need to accelerate their transition plans.”
Russia, according to the report’s tally-up, accounts for 13% of the total global hydrocarbons, with almost 90% of developed reserves located in 20 countries, including China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the US, Iran, India, Indonesia, Australia, Canada and Iraq.
Co-author Roman Medelevitch of the Oko-Institut, said: “As governments work to reduce their dependence on Russian oil, gas and coal in response to the current crisis, they must recognise that developing new reserves elsewhere takes years and will not make up for short-term scarcity.
“Where possible, governments should rather take advantage of scarcity price signals to push for sufficiency and efficiency measures and to promote renewable energy sources.”
OCI’s Kelly Trout said: “Our study reinforces that building new fossil fuel infrastructure is not a viable response to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
“The world has already tapped too much oil, gas and coal. Developing more would either cause more dangerous levels of warming, if fully extracted, or create a larger scale of stranded assets.”