Energy Transition

Japan's pioneer spirit in floating wind moved to rise anew with opening of vast deepwater zone

Nearly ten years after the decommissioning of the world-leading Fukushima Forward array stalled the country's fledgling sector, Tokyo's plans to open previously off-limits far-offshore waters could spur gigascale deployment, writes Darius Snieckus

One of a trio of floating wind turbines installed as part of the original Fukushima Forward project off Naraha, in Fukushima Prefecture, in November 2013
One of a trio of floating wind turbines installed as part of the original Fukushima Forward project off Naraha, in Fukushima Prefecture, in November 2013Foto: Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images
When a heavyweight cadre of Japanese industrial groups led by Marubeni Corporation powered up an array of floating wind turbines off Fukushima only three years after the catastrophic 2011 Daiichi nuclear meltdown, the project was rightly hailed as technological marvel: three different designs of deepwater platform topped with turbines ranging from 2MW up to 7MW – the largest, Mitsubishi Heavy’s ‘Sea Angel’, was then biggest offshore model in existence – and a floating substation to wire them all into the grid (see panel below).
But like much pioneering engineering, the Fukushima Forward project paid the price for being first. Moored in one of the wildest stretches of the Japan Sea, the floating units were eventually decommissioned in 2015 and towed back into harbour, badly battered, having suffered regular technical malfunctions and low overall power output. The eye-watering capital spend on the project became part of the industry’s mythology.
Almost ten years on, only a 3.2MW prototype made up an Aerodyn two-bladed turbine and BW Ideol's ‘damping pool’ platform off Kitakyushu, and a small 17MW project off the Goto Islands has been installed in the Japanese deeps, as the wider offshore wind sector slow-rolled forward, with the bottom-fixed 140MW Akira & Noshiro, a first bona fide industrial-scale plant, finally added to the national fleet early this year.

Nor until very recently has the mood music from government been anything but downbeat, with Hosaka Shin, commissioner of the agency for natural resources and energy at Japan’s powerful ministry of economy, trade and industry, saying as late as 2021 that the government view was still that “in terms of wind power generation [in our] very deep oceans, technology-wise there are issues that are not yet resolved”.

However, with a power-hungry population of 125 million increasingly calling for the gearing up of a renewable energy-led transition away from fossils and nuclear – on an island nation that has limited acreage on land for solar and only the narrowest of continental shelves to accommodate bottom-fixed offshore wind – floating has re-emerged as key to Tokyo’s goal of having an additional 45GW of plant turning at sea by 2045.

Japan’s wind industry has long been pushing for the government to open its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to floating wind development as part of a package of urgent measures the sector claims are needed to stop the nation falling behind other Asian offshore plays.

Jin Kato, president of the Japan Wind Power Association stated: “It is extremely important to implement necessary measures in an appropriate order and in a timely manner in order to achieve both cost reduction and domestic industry development” of the offshore wind sector and floating wind in the EEZ would “central” to “realising three objectives: deployment targets, a competitive levelised cost of energy, and a procurement ratio beneficial to the domestic supply chain and shipbuilding sector”.

Japan’s government may at last be acting in line with these goals. Plans revealed last month point to legislation being enshrined “early next year” that would clear the way for development of industrial-scale floating wind power projects in the EEZ.

Masatoshi Akimoto, the country’s vice-minister for foreign affairs, told Recharge opening up the deepwater acreage, a vast area 320km offshore sprawling over 2 million km2, for the construction of gigascale arrays would “absolutely accelerate” progress on Japan’s near and longer-term offshore wind build-out.

“Our [capacity] target right now of [up to] 45GW by 2045 would become much, much bigger. We would like the new target to be as high as possible, though we haven’t finalised any concrete numbers yet,” he said. The change in industrial status to the EEZ, part of a new five-year plan that will set the guidelines for Tokyo’s maritime policies from fiscal 2023-2027, would transform the sector, which currently has a 60GW backlog in its project pipeline.

Japan currently has a target of having a first 10GW of offshore wind operating by 2030, but some analyst forecasts predicting it will have half that in place by this date. Auctions were put on hold in 2022 after a lead-off 1.7GW round was swallowed up entirely by consortia led by Mitsubishi, shutting out a number of large Western energy developers and prompting a look at a redesign of the mechanism ahead of the current round of auctions to select operators for four new areas together representing some 1.8GW of offshore wind plant.

A 2021 report by Japan’s Floating Offshore Wind Group – formed by a number of major industry players including European giants Shell, Equinor and Ocean Winds – cited forecasts that potential generation could be “three times higher” in waters 200 metres and deeper in the EEZ than closer to shore.

Offshore energy research house Aegir Insights see floating wind projects of 500MW-1GW “further down the line than 2030” but able to deliver a LCOE “in the low 70s [$/MWh] or even 60s [$/MWh]” for developers off Japan due to the EEZ’s “larger technical potential”.

Calculated to have the potential to ultimately house an incredible 1TW of wind power plant, the EEZ would not only open up huge clean power resource to Japan in its energy transition, it would also be a boon to the country’s shipbuilding and coastal industrial supply chain, which is edging into diversification via flagship floating projects. As Akimoto said: “We see what is happening in [South] Korea, Taiwan, and we don’t want the industry going there and not Japan. We are very receptive to this.”
Many Western floating wind developers are seeing Japanese offshore wind in the same context. “We believe in the potential of offshore wind in Japan and want to compete in upcoming license rounds to secure projects here,” stated Ole Christian Willumsen, country manager for Equinor, which has the world’s maiden industrial-scale floating wind turbine, Hywind Demo, the first commercial array, Hywind Scotland, and now the largest project, the 95MW Hywind Tampen, all in the North Sea, to its credit, while off South Korea it is developing the giant 800MW Firefly.

“Given the physical attributes of the Asian geographies and waters – particularly Japan and Korea – floating will be a key technology to unleash the offshore wind potential,” he said.

“We want to build new [floating wind industrial] clusters in Asia to help enable the government ambitions, and to contribute to Equinor’s overall goal of 35-60TWh installed capacity of renewables production by 2030.

“This includes Japan,” noted Willumsen. “We believe in the potential of offshore wind in Japan and want to compete in upcoming license rounds to secure projects here. Opening up the EEZ [will be] crucial for access to acreage.”

The newest Japanese entrant into a play until now dominated by TEPCO, which has 2.1GW portfolio, and Mitsubishi, with 1.8GW, is Tokyo Gas, which is ‘going back’ to the original Fukushima project site to build a 30MW, two-unit deepwater pilot, using Principle Power platforms in 100-200 metres of water.

The symbolism is striking but the move has been made for cannier, more practical reasons. One, to build and run supersize 15MW units – which would be a global industry-first – in harsh sea conditions, and two, according to Michiko Hirose, the head of the offshore wind business at Tokyo Gas, to “speed up progress in this sector, from certification on”.

“We are starting with a small-scale, pre-commercial project that we need to launch to go through the ‘Japanese process’. Our aim is to take floating wind quickly into industrial-scale. Getting costs down means scaling up.”

“I am often asked why we do not start with a large-scale floating wind project, given precommercial-scale projects have already been deployed in Europe,” Hirose adds. “But we believe it is essential, especially in Japan and in metocean conditions that are very unique, because we need to speed up progress in this sector, from certification on, if we are to achieve the national goals set.”

Developing the coastal construction infrastructure to build the turbines is job one. Though Japan has venerated maritime and shipbuilding industries and highly developed port facilities it will be this last area that needs to be the “first area focused on”, said Principle Power chief commercial officer Aaron Smith, to meet the demands of a fast-growing floating wind market and underpin a virtuous circle of development of the local supply chain and accompanying job creation as deployment gains momentum.

“We think that Japan has a huge opportunity and it is about how you unlock the move to scale,” he said. “If you have ports that are ready on time [ to support lead-off industrial scale projects] then you build the supply chain behind them. You can make sure there is a place to build and install turbines locally and that is really important when it comes to deciding where to put new factories or facilities.”

Equinor’s Willunsen stated: “Japan has a strong competence base, industry and supply chain which is critical to succeed with Japan’s low carbon ambitions. [Floating wind] is a new industry in Japan, so there is a need for a supply chain build-out to support large scale developments.

“But this is a new and rapidly growing industry globally too, and if domestic wind projects can help fuel a national supply chain which is able to compete internationally, this can also help provide new opportunities for Japanese companies outside of Japan.”

“Freeing wind power from bottom-fixed designs opens a world of new markets and opportunities,” underlined Willumsen. “Close to 80% of the world’s offshore wind resource potential is in waters deeper than 60 metres. So, we believe the history of this sector has barely started; now it is time to scale up.

“And Japan is in a prime position to be part of that process, benefitting from sustainable, domestically produced energy from the sea.”

Between the Japanese ‘Kaizen’ streamlined engineering philosophy and the island nation’s tradition in wabi-sabi – ‘perfect imperfection’ – design, a fully fledged floating wind sector to rival any on the globe looks at long last to be just over the horizon. Not a month ago, Luke Eginton, in-country representative for Mainstream Renewable Power – which recently pulled out of the Japanese offshore wind market – said to open discussion of a Recharge-moderated panel in Tokyo: “True, [there is] nothing but promise in the Japanese market, that is clear. But how fast things will move, still nobody knows.” That visibility may suddenly be about to come into focus.
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Published 24 April 2023, 04:36Updated 24 April 2023, 04:39
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