Gas wiped out by renewables as new US fossil power all but vanishes
Just 67MW of once-dominant generation source enters service in first part of year, says regulator, as Joe Biden's policies spark solar boom
Fossil fuels all but vanished as a source of new US power generation installations in the first four months of this year, highlighting the dominant role of solar thanks largely to federal climate law incentives that give it a cost and speed-to-market advantage.
Natural gas additions were just 67MW versus 5.1GW in the same period a year ago for a technology that represents 43.5% of the country’s 1.3TW of available installed generation capacity, according to latest data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
By contrast, project developers installed 7.9GW of solar capacity, 80.6% of total additions for all technologies, versus 3.8GW a year earlier. Wind accounted for 1.8GW, down from 2GW. Other capacity sources totaled 12MW.
However, the issue is still controversial, not least among conventional energy-rich states such as Texas, which have grown wary of increasing reliance on intermittent renewables despite also being the number-one grid-scale clean energy state.
Last November, voters in Texas by a two-thirds margin approved creation of a $10bn energy fund to make available low-interest loans to construct as much as 10GW of power plants fed by natural gas and for other grid-enhancement purposes.
While the Department of Energy forecasts natural gas will remain a source of power beyond 2035, it would play more of a support role for renewables with carbon emissions captured and stored, assuming the technology is cost-effective.
Solar’s market share has accelerated largely in response to the 2022 climate law whose lucrative tax credits and greater flexibility to utilise them have given it a significant cost advantage over natural gas in a growing swath of the country.
Consultancy Wood Mackenzie, for example, estimates cost of new grid solar with storage at $40-60/MWh versus $70-95/MWh for new natural gas combined cycle, and $115-125/MWh combined cycle with carbon capture.
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between May this year and April 2027 total 88.1GW – an amount more than triple the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (23.8GW), the second fastest growing resource.
The agency also foresees growth for hydropower (554MW), geothermal (400MW), and biomass (88MW). In contrast, there is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast while coal, natural gas, and oil are projected to contract by 20.2GW, 3.8GW, and 2GW, respectively.
If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialise, by 1 May, 2027, solar will account for more than one-seventh of the nation’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.33%) or wind (12.75%).
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