EU elections put net zero resolve to the test as Portugal shows why policy matters

Voting began today (Thursday) in EU elections expected to confirm progress for populist right-wing movements across the continent, with possible implications for the continued thrust of climate policies, especially those relating to net zero ambitions.

Immigration may be the most familiar rallying cry for hard-right movements across Europe, but populists are astute at tapping into new veins of discontent. The spikes in energy prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine provided them with an opportunity.

Like immigration — and unlike Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine — the pushback against Green Deal net zero climate policies appears to unite the EU's diverse populist movements.

When they are not talking about immigration, Europe's hard-right populists can increasingly be heard tapping into grass roots reactions against issues ranging from traffic exclusion zones to emissions taxes or plans to phase out the internal combustion engine in transport.

The power to mobilise opposition was demonstrated through farmers' protests which were ostensibly about subsidies and trade, but where populists played up the anger that was directed against environmental regulations.

'Establishment' EU figures such as commission president Ursula von der Leyen seemed to wake up to the political hazards of taking a top-down target-led approach to zero-emission ambitions, with a hurried weakening of requirements for farmers.

Portuguese row back

A glimpse of the direction of travel was provided by Portugal last week.

After decades of pro-European consensus that seemed to leave little room for the hard right, Portugal suddenly saw the emergence of its own anti-establishment movement which enjoyed a strong showing in elections that followed the collapse of the former socialist government.

A centre-right Social Democratic Party-led coalition scraped to power but signs of a different approach to energy policies became apparent last week when energy minister Maria da Graca Carvalho said Portugal may lower its ambitions for an inaugural offshore wind round and put the country's broader climate goals under review.

Portugal’s EU-mandated national climate and energy plan (PNEC) includes a target of 2GW of offshore wind power capacity in operation by 2030.

Carvalho said the new administration, which is cooler toward green subsidies than its predecessor, wants to take a close look at the end cost of floating wind, but she did promise that the tender will be launched in July.

Her words fly in the face of vehement wind industry arguments that ambitious targets and stable policies are essential if gigawatt scale floating wind projects are going to be built, especially in a brand new southern European regional play like the one that also includes Spain, France, Italy and Greece.

Portugal's position may bode badly for the rest of the EU, especially when it comes to floating wind.

Fixed offshore wind has tremendous commercial momentum in the North Sea, but politicians willing to score points when it comes to the higher cost of cleaner energy are likely to find floating an easier target.

Carvalho did stress, however, that the review would not mean abandoning net zero ambitions, and she even implied that the target date could be brought forward.

Offshore wind still has time to show that offers it offers advantages that transcend any attempts to turn climate policies, whether good ones or bad ones, into part of the culture war.

Similarly, outside the EU, the UK is still well positioned to take a leading role in deploying gigawatts of floating wind capacity.

To do this, the next government will have to act decisively in putting enough money into the Contract for Difference pots.

Within the UK sector, there is cautious optimism ahead of a general election likely to be won by a Labour Party that has put floating wind right at the centre of its energy strategy.

But political challenges remain daunting, as illustrated by the ruling Conservative Party’s attempts to accuse Labour of planning secret tax hikes in order to finance its plans for green energy.

The answer, of course, is for UK policy makers to have the courage of their convictions when it comes to floating wind.

And they can find inspiration for this across the channel, where the French government has been moving briskly ahead with its first commercial floating wind tender and has bold plans for multiple auctions before 2025, including one “mega-tender” event with 8-10GW on offer.

France's inaugural tender, although relatively small, was highly competitive and has triggered a healthy debate on how costs can be reduced.

Portuguese hesitation will not be enough to scupper ambitions for a regionally coordinated pipeline of floating wind, but it is has become increasingly urgent that Spain, Greece and Italy match French ambitions.

The flow of jobs and clean electricity that could result would be popular, without any need for the populists.