Could a Trump 'Project 2025' agenda put a big dent in America's green transition?
The ultra-conservative manifesto could spell a 200GW setback if adopted but the most likely impact will be muted, says research group
Donald Trump’s impact on the energy transition is most likely to be muted despite heated rhetoric around renewables, but an extreme set of policies based on the 'Project 2025' manifesto could have a dramatic effect, new analysis by consultancy Aurora Energy Research found.
The Republican former and would-be next president would be “likely to have limited success” in slowing renewables deployment despite his vow to gut President Joe Biden’s most significant climate initiative, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the consultancy said.
Repealing the IRA looks unlikely as the majority of supply chain investments are happening in Republican dominated Congressional districts, Aurora observed, in line with multiple reports.
The Texas-based consultancy said a Trump presidency’s greater support for fossil fuels and weakening of Biden-era environmental protections “could reduce wind, solar, and battery deployment by up to 25GW by 2040 across the major power markets.
“Overall, the energy transition will continue apace, fuelled by rapid demand growth from AI and data centres, continued renewables cost declines, and the centrality of states and regional power markets in setting the policy agenda,” Aurora said.
'Project 2025'
Aurora also modelled a more extreme ‘Project 2025’ scenario that could see a future Trump presidency “under pressure to finance a massive $4.6trn extension of 2017 tax cuts,” scrap IRA tax credits for renewables despite objections from his own party.
“This would result in a much more significant slowdown in the pace of the energy transition, with 200GW fewer renewables and batteries projects by 2040,” the consultancy said, especially as fewer renewables in the power mix would raise wholesale power prices by up to 22% in strongly impacted regions like Texas.
Texas leads the US with 39.4GW of wind power and 25.3GW of solar.
Trump has disavowed Project 2025, a manifesto on the goals and methods of achieving them for a conservative administration, that has generated sparks on the campaign trail.
The document calls for “bringing the administrative state more firmly under the control of the president,” and some see it as a blueprint for an authoritarian takeover of the government.
Project 2025 claims its policy reforms would ensure “access to abundant, reliable and affordable energy for the American people, including low-cost gasoline,” in part by “ending the Biden administration’s war on fossil fuels” and stopping “climate fascism”.
“Global warming offers no justification for carbon-based regulation,” Project 2025 notes.
Trump has likewise vowed to “drill baby, drill” for fossil fuels to slash energy prices and has downplayed climate change risks.
An administration under vice president and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris administration would “largely represent a continuation of current trends,” the consultancy said.
Many analysts note that energy markets are largely outside the control of the president, with oil and gas production reached record highs under Biden, while Trump's presidency saw strong renewables deployment.
(Copyright)